The Surprising Power of Neighborly Advice

Two experiments revealed that (i) people can more accurately predict their affective reactions to a future event when they know how a neighbor in their social network reacted to the event than when they know about the event itself and (ii) people do not believe this. Undergraduates made more accurate predictions about their affective reactions to a 5-minute speed date (n = 25) and to a peer evaluation (n = 88) when they knew only how another undergraduate had reacted to these events than when they had information about the events themselves. Both participants and independent judges mistakenly believed that predictions based on information about the event would be more accurate than predictions based on information about how another person had reacted to it.Psycholog

Patient and Strain Characteristics Associated With Clostridium difficile Transmission and Adverse Outcomes

Background: No study has used whole-genome sequencing (WGS) to investigate risk factors for Clostridium difficile (CD) transmission between cases, or assessed the impact of recent acquisition on patient outcome. Methods: This 20 month retrospective cohort study included consecutive cytotoxin-positive diarrheal samples, which underwent culture, ribotyping, and WGS (Illumina). Sequenced isolates were compared using single nucleotide variants (SNVs). Independent predictors of acquisition from another case, onward transmission, 120-day recurrence, and 30-day mortality were identified using logistic regression with backwards elimination. Results: Of 660 CD cases, 640 (97%) were sequenced, of which 567 (89%) shared a ribotype with a prior case, but only 227 (35%) were ≤2 SNVs from a prior case, supporting recent acquisition. Plausible ( .1). Conclusions: Greater transmission of certain lineages suggests CD may have different reservoirs and modes of transmission. Acquiring CD from a recent case is associated with poorer clinical outcomes. Clinical characteristics associated with increased healthcare-associated CD transmission could be used to target preventative interventions

Ct threshold values, a proxy for viral load in community SARS-CoV-2 cases, demonstrate wide variation across populations and over time.

BACKGROUND: Information on SARS-CoV-2 in representative community surveillance is limited, particularly cycle threshold (Ct) values (a proxy for viral load). METHODS: We included all positive nose and throat swabs 26 April 2020 to 13 March 2021 from the UK's national COVID-19 Infection Survey, tested by RT-PCR for the N, S, and ORF1ab genes. We investigated predictors of median Ct value using quantile regression. RESULTS: Of 3,312,159 nose and throat swabs, 27,902 (0.83%) were RT-PCR-positive, 10,317 (37%), 11,012 (40%), and 6550 (23%) for 3, 2, or 1 of the N, S, and ORF1ab genes, respectively, with median Ct = 29.2 (~215 copies/ml; IQR Ct = 21.9-32.8, 14-56,400 copies/ml). Independent predictors of lower Cts (i.e. higher viral load) included self-reported symptoms and more genes detected, with at most small effects of sex, ethnicity, and age. Single-gene positives almost invariably had Ct > 30, but Cts varied widely in triple-gene positives, including without symptoms. Population-level Cts changed over time, with declining Ct preceding increasing SARS-CoV-2 positivity. Of 6189 participants with IgG S-antibody tests post-first RT-PCR-positive, 4808 (78%) were ever antibody-positive; Cts were significantly higher in those remaining antibody negative. CONCLUSIONS: Marked variation in community SARS-CoV-2 Ct values suggests that they could be a useful epidemiological early-warning indicator. FUNDING: Department of Health and Social Care, National Institutes of Health Research, Huo Family Foundation, Medical Research Council UK; Wellcome Trust

Transmission of Staphylococcus aureus between health-care workers, the environment, and patients in an intensive care unit: a longitudinal cohort study based on whole-genome sequencing

Background: Health-care workers have been implicated in nosocomial outbreaks of Staphylococcus aureus, but the dearth of evidence from non-outbreak situations means that routine health-care worker screening and S aureus eradication are controversial. We aimed to determine how often S aureus is transmitted from health-care workers or the environment to patients in an intensive care unit (ICU) and a high-dependency unit (HDU) where standard infection control measures were in place. Methods: In this longitudinal cohort study, we systematically sampled health-care workers, the environment, and patients over 14 months at the ICU and HDU of the Royal Sussex County Hospital, Brighton, England. Nasal swabs were taken from health-care workers every 4 weeks, bed spaces were sampled monthly, and screening swabs were obtained from patients at admission to the ICU or HDU, weekly thereafter, and at discharge. Isolates were cultured and their whole genome sequenced, and we used the threshold of 40 single-nucleotide variants (SNVs) or fewer to define subtypes and infer recent transmission. Findings: Between Oct 31, 2011, and Dec 23, 2012, we sampled 198 health-care workers, 40 environmental locations, and 1854 patients; 1819 isolates were sequenced. Median nasal carriage rate of S aureus in health-care workers at 4-weekly timepoints was 36·9% (IQR 35·7–37·3), and 115 (58%) health-care workers had S aureus detected at least once during the study. S aureus was identified in 8–50% of environmental samples. 605 genetically distinct subtypes were identified (median SNV difference 273, IQR 162–399) at a rate of 38 (IQR 34–42) per 4-weekly cycle. Only 25 instances of transmission to patients (seven from health-care workers, two from the environment, and 16 from other patients) were detected. Interpretation: In the presence of standard infection control measures, health-care workers were infrequently sources of transmission to patients. S aureus epidemiology in the ICU and HDU is characterised by continuous ingress of distinct subtypes rather than transmission of genetically related strains. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, UK National Institute for Health Research, and Public Health England

Effects of control interventions on Clostridium difficile infection in England: an observational study

Background: The control of Clostridium difficile infections is an international clinical challenge. The incidence of C difficile in England declined by roughly 80% after 2006, following the implementation of national control policies; we tested two hypotheses to investigate their role in this decline. First, if C difficile infection declines in England were driven by reductions in use of particular antibiotics, then incidence of C difficile infections caused by resistant isolates should decline faster than that caused by susceptible isolates across multiple genotypes. Second, if C difficile infection declines were driven by improvements in hospital infection control, then transmitted (secondary) cases should decline regardless of susceptibility. Methods: Regional (Oxfordshire and Leeds, UK) and national data for the incidence of C difficile infections and antimicrobial prescribing data (1998–2014) were combined with whole genome sequences from 4045 national and international C difficile isolates. Genotype (multilocus sequence type) and fluoroquinolone susceptibility were determined from whole genome sequences. The incidence of C difficile infections caused by fluoroquinolone-resistant and fluoroquinolone-susceptible isolates was estimated with negative-binomial regression, overall and per genotype. Selection and transmission were investigated with phylogenetic analyses. Findings: National fluoroquinolone and cephalosporin prescribing correlated highly with incidence of C difficile infections (cross-correlations >0·88), by contrast with total antibiotic prescribing (cross-correlations 0·2). Interpretation: Restricting fluoroquinolone prescribing appears to explain the decline in incidence of C difficile infections, above other measures, in Oxfordshire and Leeds, England. Antimicrobial stewardship should be a central component of C difficile infection control programmes

Rapid draft sequencing and real-time nanopore sequencing in a hospital outbreak of Salmonella

Background: Foodborne outbreaks of Salmonella remain a pressing public health concern. We recently detected a large outbreak of Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis phage type 14b affecting more than 30 patients in our hospital. This outbreak was linked to community, national and European-wide cases. Hospital patients with Salmonella are at high risk, and require a rapid response. We initially investigated this outbreak by whole-genome sequencing using a novel rapid protocol on the Illumina MiSeq; we then integrated these data with whole-genome data from surveillance sequencing, thereby placing the outbreak in a national context. Additionally, we investigated the potential of a newly released sequencing technology, the MinION from Oxford Nanopore Technologies, in the management of a hospital outbreak of Salmonella. Results: We demonstrate that rapid MiSeq sequencing can reduce the time to answer compared to the standard sequencing protocol with no impact on the results. We show, for the first time, that the MinION can acquire clinically relevant information in real time and within minutes of a DNA library being loaded. MinION sequencing permits confident assignment to species level within 20 min. Using a novel streaming phylogenetic placement method samples can be assigned to a serotype in 40 min and determined to be part of the outbreak in less than 2 h. Conclusions: Both approaches yielded reliable and actionable clinical information on the Salmonella outbreak in less than half a day. The rapid availability of such information may facilitate more informed epidemiological investigations and influence infection control practices